Monday, October 8, 2012

Football Analysis: How Notre Dame sizes up statistically as a national title contender

SOUTH BEND ? It is probably more pragmatic than ironic that on a weekend of cartoonish offensive production, the Notre Dame defense rested.

And so did the rest of the Irish football team.

Notre Dame?s bye weekend (Sept. 29) happened to coincide with the second-highest scoring Saturday since 1937, a weekend ? as SI.com?s Stewart Mandell pointed out ? in which 44 percent of the FBS games played had at least one of its teams score 42 or more points.

The Irish defense, now second in the country in scoring D after Saturday night?s 41-3 smothering of Miami (Fla.) in Chicago, has yielded only 39 points all season. That?s the fewest since the 1976 Irish allowed 37 in their first five games and 22 fewer than the 1988 Irish allowed five games into the school?s most-recent national title run.

Notre Dame, the only one of 120 FBS teams not to have allowed a rushing TD this season, is 17th in rushing defense, 10th in pass-efficiency defense, 13th in total defense and 20th in sacks heading into Saturday?s showdown with No. 17 Stanford (4-1).

The contradiction of big offense vs. big defense wasn?t lost on third-year head coach Brian Kelly, whose Irish (5-0) jumped to No. 7 in both the Associated Press and coaches polls Sunday and crashed the top five of the Sagarin computer rankings at No. 4.

Kelly used to be a part of the pass-happy, high-tempo, defense-quasi-optional movement, especially at Cincinnati where two teams reached the BCS plateau but both of which lost decisively on that big stage.

Florida, with the nation?s No. 4 defense, throttled the nation?s No. 4 scoring offense and No. 8 passing attack in the Sugar Bowl, 51-24, in the 2009 season. That truncated Cincy?s unbeaten run days after Kelly took the Notre Dame head coaching job. In 2008, Virginia Tech and it?s No. 7 defense squelched Kelly?s offense, 20-7, in the Orange Bowl.

?I've had to run an offense that scored more points than the defense,? Kelly said Sunday. ?You don't do your defense any service in those kind of games. When you play the game that way, you're susceptible to off-days, and you're going to get beat.

?When I came to Notre Dame, having lived in that world of trying to outscore opponents, I felt the best blueprint that we could put together for a national championship here was through our defense. We're starting to see the building of that.

?The blueprint here is to not try to outscore people and turning it into a track meet. It's to control the line of scrimmage. It's to play great defense, to be solid in the special teams. So it's just the choice of the way I want our program to evolve.?

History, even recent history, is on Kelly?s side in that regard.

With the Irish ascent coaxing a visit from the ESPN College GameDay crew and pushing itself into the periphery of the national championship discussion, it seems like the right time to size up what a BCS title contender looks like and how the current ND squad measures up to that template.

-- Total defense is the most reliable common thread among national champions in the BCS Era (1998-present). Only Auburn in 2010 won a national title with a sub-top 25 total defense ranking (60th), but the Tigers were staunch against the run (ninth), and that helped them put away Oregon in the championship game.

Last year?s national champion, Alabama was No. 1 in total defense. The current Crimson Tide team, No. 1 in both of this week?s polls, is also No. 1 in total defense. Last year?s national runner-up, LSU was No. 2 in total D.

The Irish ranking of 13th in that category figures to hold up against the remainder of a schedule that is devoid of a Top 25 offense and has three ranked 72nd or lower (Stanford, BYU and Wake Forest). Oklahoma (28th) is the most potent and complete offense, and at this snapshot, the most complete team left (17th in total defense).

-- Rush defense is a shining part of almost every national champion?s r?sum?. The last time the national champion ranked lower than 15th in run defense was Texas in 2005. Only two of the 28 teams to even reach the championship game had a run defense ranking lower than the 2005 Longhorns? No. 33 slotting ? Miami?s 2001 national champs (40th) and the Hurricanes? 2002 runner-ups (72nd).

Notre Dame?s rush defense (17th) has already faced the nation?s No. 4 rusher in Michigan?s Denard Robinson and No. 9 in Michigan State?s Le?Veon Bell. The Irish do not face a rush offense that is currently ranked in the top 35 the rest of the regular season.

-- Notre Dame?s 376 rushing yards Saturday were the second-most by an Irish team since 1988 and boosted the team?s rushing offense ranking from 84th to 40th.

That?s important, given that the Irish see the No. 6 rush defense Saturday (Stanford) and No. 1 (BYU) the following week.

Source: http://www.southbendtribune.com/sports/notredame/football/sbt-football-analysis-how-notre-dame-sizes-up-statistically-as-a-national-title-contender-20121007,0,7065847.story?track=rss

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